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A Few Rough Thunderstorms Later Today?

It’s that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.

The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don’t see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won’t be long now – enjoy!

Here’s the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.

Here’s the average first measurable snowfall (0.01″) at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.

Here’s the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday. Weather conditions through the weekend will be a little unsettled with spotty showers and storms. Some of the rainfall could be locally heavy, especially north and east of the Twin Cities.

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Arrowhead and into Wisconsin. Drier weather will be in place across the Southwestern MN.

Here’s the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 13th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.

The weather outlook on Saturday shows spotty showers and storms across the region with temps warming into the 70s and 80s. Temps will only be in the 60s across northwestern MN and into North Dakota.

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows spotty showers and storm chances through the day with high temps warming into the lower 80s.

The extended weather outlook over the new days shows sticky dewpoints in the 60s through early next week.

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps starting in the mid 60s in the morning with highs topping out in the lower 80s in the afternoon. Southerly winds will gust close to 15mph in the afternoon.

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows readings running above average by nearly +5F to +10F over the next several days with a slight increase in humidity values as we head through the weekend and into early next week. The warmest day could be next Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows warm temperatures in place over the next several days. It’ll be a little cooler late week with temps dipping into the 60s.

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook shows above average temps through early next week. Temps will be a little cooler as we approach the end of the month.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the southern and western US with cooler temps in the Great Lakes.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place across much of the northern tier of the nation and the Central US.

As of late Friday, Tropical Storm Fiona was moving into the northeastern Caribbean. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been posted from the Leeward Islands to the Dominican.

September is sweet relief. Summer is fading but skies are generally lukewarm and quiet. It’s like waving goodbye to a dear friend while waiting for your crazy uncle to show up, clutching an ice scraper and a tattered face mask.

As a rule severe thunderstorms are rare, the result of a cooling, stabilizing airmass near the ground. Today may prove to be the exception to that rule, with a “slight risk” of severe storms, hail and damaging winds over central Minnesota, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Morning activities may be OK, but keep an eye on the sky during the afternoon and evening hours. Silver lining: weather models hint at some .5 to 1″ rainfall amounts.

Sunday should the sunnier, drier day of the weekend with highs in the 70s. After upper 80s Tuesday a spirited round of showers arrive Wednesday, blown along by northwest winds gusting to 30 mph. By Thursday there will be no doubt in your mind that autumn has arrived. Highs hover in the 60s late next week, but I expect a few more warm fronts.

SATURDAY: Warm sun, PM severe storm? Winds: S 8-13. High: 82.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Chance of t-storms overnight. Winds: ESE 5. Low: 64.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 76.

MONDAY: Plenty of sunshine, quiet. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 59. High: 79.

TUESDAY: Early thunder then sunny and warm. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 87.

WEDNESDAY: Showers & storms, gusty and cooler. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 62. High: 68.

THURSDAY: Scrappy clouds with a cool wind. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 54. High: 63.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 53. High: 64.

September 17th

1955: A late-season tornado hits Koochiching County. Most damage is confined to trees.

1911: Pipestone is hit with baseball-sized hail that smashes numerous windows at the Calumet Hotel and high school. The local observer measures hail three inches deep. People get their photos taken in automobiles surrounded by the icy white ground.

September 17th

Average High: 73F (Record: 96F set in 1895)

Average Low: 54F (Record: 34F set in 1875 & 1943)

Record Rainfall: 2.37″ set in 2015

Record Snowfall: None

September 17th

Sunrise: 6:54am

Sunset: 7:20pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 26 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 5 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 12 minutes

0.4 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

The weather outlook on Saturday shows warmer than average temps returning to the middle part of the country. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will return to the Western US.

Areas of showers and storms will be possible across the Midwest, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Here’s the weather outlook through Sunday, which shows unsettled weather across the Midwest with pockets of locally heavy rain. There will also be areas of heavy rain moving into parts of California.

According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will continue across Florida with localized flooding possible. There will also be decent rainfall amounts through California, Intermountain-West and also closer to Lake Superior.

“Hundreds of people across the United Kingdom had front-row seats to an exciting mystery that literally went right over their heads on Wednesday night. A massive fireball shot across the sky, puzzling hundreds of people across Scotland, Ireland and England. The fast-moving fireball was caught on several cameras at around 10 p.m. local time. Some witnesses described it as looking green while videos showed it surrounded by a wide-ranging flashing aura as it bolted across the clouds. For Steve Owens, an astronomer and science communicator at the Glasgow Science Centre, the sighting was “incredible,” he told BBC.”

See more from CBS News HERE:

“A new multi-agency report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has a stark and dire warning for the entire planet: we are heading in the wrong direction on climate change. “The science is clear. Urgent action is needed to mitigate emissions and adapt to the changing climate,” says the report.”

See more from PopSci HERE:

“It was a relentlessly hot summer in much of the U.S., especially across the Plains, Southwest and West, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The big picture: While each month had its own quirks, there were two constants: extreme heat in Texas and Oklahoma and damaging flash flooding in multiple locations across the country as rainfall records were shattered. For meteorological summer, which runs from June 1 through Aug. 31, the U.S. average temperature was 2.5°F above average for the season. This made it the third-hottest summer in 128 years, NOAA found.”

See more from Axios HERE:

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