The crypto market has been struggling to retrace higher in the past few weeks. The FTX crash removed all hopes of a potential market recovery before 2023. Bitcoin managed to breach $18,000 yesterday, only to crash yet again below $17,000. Will Bitcoin crash to $10,000 soon? Here’s what you need to know in this Bitcoin prediction article.
How did Bitcoin Perform in 2022?
A horrible performance. Bitcoin started to crash in fact back in October 2021, when its prices sank from an all-time high of $69,700. The year 2022 started for Bitcoin at a price of around $48,000. Since then, prices are heading south with no retracement at all. If we look at figure 1 below, we can see how prices are on a continuous downtrend.
Since the beginning of the year 2022, Bitcoin lost around 65%. However, legacy markets are not doing better either. Facebook for example is also down by 65% since the beginning of the year, and Credit Suisse is down by 67%.
Why is Bitcoin down?
That’s a million-dollar question. It is very hard to know what factors directly influenced Bitcoin prices to decrease. However, we can pinpoint some major factors that contribute to the development of Bitcoin prices:
- Market demand: The price of Bitcoin is influenced by the overall demand for it in the market. If more people are interested in buying Bitcoin, the price may increase, and if fewer people are interested in buying it, the price may decrease. 2022 caused a lot of Bitcoin holders to liquidate, thus lowering the demand for Bitcoin, hence lower prices.
- Regulatory developments: Changes in the regulatory environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can also affect their prices. For example, if a government announces that it plans to crack down on the use of cryptocurrency, the price of Bitcoin may fall. Many countries in 2022 banned cryptos, which caused prices to sink lower.
- Economic conditions: The price of Bitcoin may also be influenced by broader economic conditions, such as interest rates and inflation. If the value of traditional assets like stocks and bonds is falling, some investors may turn to Bitcoin as an alternative investment. The year 2022 was a bad one for all kinds of investors, including crypto investors.
- Market manipulation: The price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can also be influenced by market manipulation, where individuals or groups try to artificially influence the price by buying or selling large amounts of cryptocurrency. This causes direct pumps and dumps, where the latter becomes harsher.
- Security breaches: If a major exchange experiences a security breach, it could lead to a decrease in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In 2022, we saw many crypto exchanges being hacked, which caused to directly lower the confidence of crypto investors.
- Adoption by merchants and consumers: As more merchants and consumers start accepting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a form of payment, the demand for these assets may increase, which could lead to an increase in their prices. However, the year 2022 did not see any increase in Bitcoin’s adoption. On the contrary, people ran away from cryptos as they were losing in price.
It’s important to note that these are just a few of the factors that can influence the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and the relative importance of each factor may vary over time.
Bitcoin Prediction: Will Bitcoin crash to $10,000?
Bitcoin prices are currently showing no sign of reversing higher. The downtrend continues despite many attempts. If the bear market continues till next year, we expect Bitcoin prices to reach a price area between $10,00 and $12,000 around Q2 of 2023.
This takes into account no additional factors affecting crypto prices. On the other hand, breaking the red downtrend of Bitcoin should instigate a sign of a comeback. However, we are currently far from that. December continues to be bearish, even in the first quarters of 2023.
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